Asset manager VanEck projects Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million per coin by 2050 in its base case, driven by a 15% compound annual growth rate from current levels around $91,000. The forecast assumes Bitcoin settles 5-10% of global international trade and captures 2.5% of central bank balance sheets, positioning it as a hedge against monetary debasement in a high-debt world.

Portfolio Allocation Guidance

VanEck recommends 1-3% Bitcoin allocation for diversified portfolios to enhance risk-adjusted returns, with up to 20% suitable for high-risk tolerance investors based on historical Sharpe ratio optimizations. Small positions leverage Bitcoin's low correlation to traditional assets and convex return profile amid sovereign debt pressures.

Bull and Bear Scenarios

In the hyper-bitcoinization bull case, Bitcoin hits $53.4 million by capturing 20% of international trade and 10% of global GDP, rivaling gold as a reserve asset. The bear case sees modest 2% annual growth to $130,000 if adoption stalls and it fails to gain reserve status.

Strategic Implications for Investors

Bitcoin emerges as a non-sovereign reserve asset amid declining dominance of fiat currencies like the USD and Euro in cross-border payments. Layer-2 solutions and institutional adoption could enable this trajectory, making zero exposure riskier than measured volatility.