Bitcoin’s latest rebound has reignited an old question: is this the start of a new uptrend, or another bear-market rally that fades at a major resistance? After briefly pushing to around $97,800, BTC pulled back to roughly $90,600, leaving the market divided.

Why the rally is being questioned

Even after bouncing about 21% from late-November lows, Bitcoin remains roughly 36% below its October 2025 peak near $126,080. The drawdown and rebound combination looks familiar to analysts who track long-cycle trend signals.

CryptoQuant: “2022-style” setup could repeat

CryptoQuant has warned that Bitcoin’s recent behavior resembles the 2022 bear-market pattern: a breakdown below the 365-day moving average followed by a sharp rebound that ultimately fails near the same line.

In this framework, the 365-day moving average is the “make-or-break” level. It has been cited around $101,000, and the idea is simple: if BTC can’t reclaim and hold above it, the broader downtrend may still be intact.

Bear-case targets being discussed

• A potential multi-month bear phase extending into 2026
• Bottoming zones referenced around $56,000–$60,000 (realized-price history)
• Other bearish projections clustered near $58,000–$62,000

Bulls: the market structure is different now

Bulls argue that comparing 2026 to 2022 misses key structural changes: more institutional ownership, less reflexive leverage, and new demand channels such as spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Supportive structural signals

• Public companies holding more than 1.3 million BTC
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs with roughly $130 billion in AUM since 2024
• Exchange balances falling from over 3.0 million BTC (2022) to under 2.8 million BTC

ETF flows have been choppy, but still meaningful: one recent week saw about $1.42 billion of inflows after a roughly $681 million outflow week to start 2026. Some observers also point to relatively steady demand from major products (for example, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust) even when broader redemptions appear.

Key levels traders are watching

In the near term, attention is on whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $94,500–$100,000 zone and then challenge the 365-day moving average near $101,000. A clean recovery and hold above these levels would strengthen the bull case; repeated rejection could reinforce the “bear market rally” narrative.

Two scenario map

1. Bull continuation: BTC retakes $100,000 and holds above the 365-day MA, attracting fresh spot demand.
2. Bear continuation: BTC stalls below the 365-day MA and rolls over, reopening downside targets near the mid-$60Ks to high-$50Ks.

What could tip the balance

Beyond charts, traders are weighing liquidity and macro headlines. Higher geopolitical and policy uncertainty can amplify volatility, while improving liquidity conditions can help risk assets stabilize. The next few weekly closes around major trend lines may matter more than any single intraday spike.