Bitcoin Shows Rare Structural Break From Past Bear Cycles

Date: January 5, 2026

Unprecedented Deviation From Historical Patterns

Comparative analysis of Bitcoin's weekly structure across 2014, 2018, 2022, and 2026 reveals an unprecedented deviation from previous bear market behavior. In past cycles, Bitcoin consistently fell below the 100-week exponential and simple moving averages (EMA and SMA), with these crossovers historically leading to sharp declines. In contrast, Bitcoin now trades well above those thresholds, maintaining structure despite indicator convergence that once marked deep downturns.

Analysts emphasize the significance of Bitcoin holding above the 100-week averages for the first time during the late phase of a macro cycle. This suggests either structural market maturity or a shift in institutional dynamics influencing BTC’s long-term price support levels.

Mixed Signals Despite Rally

Despite recent bullish momentum, Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit metric has declined to 68.85%, positioning it in a zone historically signaling uncertainty. According to CryptoQuant data, the indicator has lingered between 55% and 80% since late 2025 — a transitional band separating bull from bear territory. Analysts note that traders should adopt balanced risk management as the market evolves beyond its peak phase.

Institutional activity continues to support prices, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $471 million in inflows on January 2 — the second-largest daily total since November. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led the surge with $287 million in new investments. Market projections place Bitcoin's 2026 range between $80,000 and $140,000, with $90,000–$120,000 expected as the most active trading zone.