Bitcoin has bounced sharply from late‑2025 lows around the $80,000 area, with leading research firm Bernstein reiterating a bullish price target of $150,000 for 2026 and calling a bottom for the current correction.

The move comes as spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States reopen the liquidity taps after year‑end tax selling, signaling renewed institutional confidence in the asset.

From $80,000 Lows to Fresh Optimism

After topping out above $120,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin slid nearly 30% into the low‑to‑mid $80,000s by late Q4, shaking out leveraged traders and raising fears of a deeper bear phase.

Since then, price has stabilized above key support near the $88,000–$90,000 band, with recent sessions showing a rebound back toward the low‑$90,000 range as buyers step back in.

Institutional Inflows Return via ETFs

Bitcoin’s latest recovery is underpinned by a visible turn in ETF flows, as U.S. spot Bitcoin products logged several hundred million dollars of net inflows in the opening days of 2026, reversing heavy outflows seen into year‑end.

BlackRock’s flagship IBIT fund has led the resurgence with strong daily subscriptions, while other major issuers like Fidelity and Bitwise have also reported renewed demand from professional and institutional allocators.

Bernstein’s $150,000 and 2027 Peak Scenario

Bernstein’s latest research argues that Bitcoin has entered an elongated bull market powered by “sticky” institutional buying, breaking away from the classic four‑year halving‑driven cycle.

The firm now projects Bitcoin around $150,000 in 2026 and a potential cycle peak near $200,000 in 2027, with a long‑term roadmap that extends toward much higher valuations into the next decade.

Tokenization Supercycle and Stablecoin Growth

Bernstein also ties its optimistic view to a broader “tokenization supercycle,” highlighting how real‑world asset tokenization and on‑chain capital markets could deepen demand for Bitcoin and the wider crypto complex.

The analysts expect stablecoin supply alone to expand by more than 50% year‑over‑year in 2026, pushing the market toward the $400–$450 billion zone as on‑chain payments and treasury use cases scale up.

Is the Four‑Year Bitcoin Cycle Dead?

The growing role of ETFs, corporate treasuries, and asset managers has sparked intense debate about whether Bitcoin’s historic four‑year boom‑and‑bust rhythm still applies.

Bernstein contends that structural demand from institutions, combined with relatively shallow ETF outflows during the 2025 correction, suggests a more mature market where drawdowns are shorter and upside cycles potentially stretch over longer horizons.

What Traders and Long‑Term Holders Should Watch

In the near term, traders are watching the $90,000–$95,000 band as a key battleground; holding this zone could open the way toward a retest of the prior six‑figure highs if ETF inflows remain solid.

Long‑term investors, meanwhile, are focusing on whether institutional allocations deepen through 2026 and whether the tokenization and stablecoin narratives translate into sustained on‑chain volumes rather than a short‑lived sentiment spike.